Well, it’s that time again. I have been asked to do some software industry predictions for 2010. God only knows why; I have made some really bad predictions over the last 25 years in this business. So, it is with a careful and skeptical eye that you should view my predictions for this coming year, 2010. But, I do have to admit that one of my predictions is finally coming true…albeit a bit late:
I have been making the same prediction since 2004…the realization the next-generation application: the “Smart Client”, “Rich Client”, “Rich Internet Application” (RIA) or whatever marketing term we apply to it. We are seeing (and building) these highly graphical and functional applications and the impotent browser app is now the exception, not the norm. True, Amazon and EBay just haven’t “got it” yet…but, i am convinced they will get it…eventually. With the unbelievable power and developer productivity of Microsoft Silverlight and a fully trusted version 4 coming there just will not be any excuse for applications with bad user interfaces anymore. Couple that with the most quickly and widely adopted developer technology in Microsoft history (Silverlight) and we really are going to see some compelling applications appear inside and outside the firewall, cross platform and by end of year small device capable.
Secondly, we are going to see a paradigm shift this year in a small segment of Multi-touch capable applications. At InterKnowlogy we have been building Kiosk, Interactive Digital Signage, 3D multi-touch manipulation and telestration apps for a few years on the Microsoft Surface. Now that:
- Windows 7 has shipped and is multi-touch capable
- Silverlight is multi-touch capable.
- Mainstream hardware has touch capability and shipping at commodity prices
Developers will start taking advantage of it. We are years before the mouse becomes extinct, but it will be extinct eventually. If you purchase a computer in 2010 you are most likely going to get a touch capable computer…whether you want it (or use it) or not. And multi-touch capability in computers will be the norm, not the exception within months, not years.
In case you are interested i tracked down my last two years software industry predictions: